Assumptions shape the future. They help us to plan ahead; on the assumption that what worked last year will work next year.
Infrastucture projects inevitably require underpinning assumptions to ensure they are built to the correct size for an assumed future demand. For example the UK has a £28 billion road building programme which is based on the assumption that traffic will increase by 1% a year for the foreseeable future; and 99% of the distance travelled is assumed to be done propelled by petrol, diesel or electricity.
https://www.cyclinguk.org/statistics
According to UK government statistics in 2017 just 1% of the distance travelled by people in England was done on a bicycle. This is a surprisingly low number when compared to other European countries. 2% of journeys are done on a bicycle in the UK compared to 27% of journeys in The Netherlands and 11% in Germany for example.
But that was before Covid-19.
The lockdown response to control the spread of the coronavirus in March, April and May 2020 caused an unprecedented reduction in motorised traffic. A perfect storm of circumstances came together to completely challenge what transport assumptions can be taken forward into the future. The requirement to stay at home and only do essential journeys for food and medicine; a fear of catching the virus on public transport and being encouraged to take one outdoor exercise daily led to a massive shift to walking and cycling.
Traffic levels fell to 1950’s levels becoming so low that you could hear birdsong in towns and cities. Pollution smogs cleared and busy roads emptied – making them safe at last for people who would not have considered cycling under ‘normal’ conditions; many of whom would never think of wearing lycra. The Spring of 2020 was thankfully warm and sunny and people able to go outside appreciated seeing and hearing, perhaps for the first time, nature awakening from winter.
It is thought that new habits take an average of 66 days to form – although this will of course vary enormously between people. https://doi.org/10.1002/ejsp.674
The coronavirus lockdown has been arguably long enough to form new habits and to open people’s eyes to the assumptions that previously went unchallenged. Many people may have formed a new walking or cycling habit to take into their futures and shape their assumptions about what is normal.
In Sweden, transport infrastructure projects which fall within 1 kilometre of a nature conservation site (Special Protection Area) are built on the assumption that they will cause the loss of 1% of birds in the area. https://ec.europa.eu/environment/integration/research/newsalert/pdf/road_and_rail_infrastructure_threaten_swedens_protected_birds_541na3_en.pdf
Perhaps the ‘noisy Spring’ of 2020 will challenge the assumption that our need to get from A to B as quickly as possible is worth losing our connection to nature for.
The future demand for different modes of transport in the post-Covid world will be hard to call but any assumptions reflecting a slower and greener way of moving about our towns and cities will be much more likely.
The UK government had committed to spending 2% of its transport budget on so called ‘active travel’. But there were calls to increase this amount even before the coronavirus hit. Perhaps the assumptions underpinning the return on this investment will look more favourable now. https://www.ciht.org.uk/news/renewed-call-for-greater-spend-on-active-travel/
Cycling might be reclaimed by the non-lycra wearing majority yet.
One Percent Blog 